Oil is ending the week right around $92 a barrel, roughly where it started. It was one of those weeks where everything went back and forth: good news, then bad news, then good news again. Every time it looked like a deal might be coming together, something happened to push it off.
This was one of the most volatile weeks of the entire three-month Hormuz crisis. WTI crude touched $100 a barrel early in the week, collapsed to $90 on deal optimism midweek, snapped back above $90 when airstrikes resumed, and is ending the week right back near $90 as a potential ceasefire extension waits for President Trump’s signature. Oil moved as much as six dollars in a single session on multiple days. The one certainty heading into the weekend is that nothing is solid until a deal is signed and the first tanker moves freely through the Strait.
This was a week that had everything: drone strikes, a near-restart of the war in Iran, a record SPR draw, cautiously optimistic peace signals, and a Chicago market that continued to swing in record numbers. WTI is looking to close below $100/barrel for a weekly loss.
This was another week where hope appeared on Monday, reality set back in by Friday. Oil is trading near $104 a barrel as I write this after Trump announced overnight that the United States doesn’t need the Strait of Hormuz open. The comment sent prices up more than 2% to start the day.
What a week. Oil opened Monday near $105 a barrel on fears the US had been attacked in the strait, collapsed nearly 10 percent by Wednesday on peace talk hopes, and is finishing the week around $94 as fighting continues despite an active ceasefire.
What a week. Oil touched its highest price in four years on Thursday when WTI briefly spiked to $112 a barrel on fears the United States was preparing a new military strike against Iran, only to pull back sharply today after Iran sent a fresh peace proposal to Pakistani mediators.
It was a roller coaster week in oil markets, and it ended on an unexpected note of hope. A source in Pakistan said Iran’s top diplomat was expected to arrive in Islamabad Friday night for peace talks with the United States, and that single piece of news was enough to calm a market that had been beaten up all week by bad headlines.
What a week. Crude oil markets went from bracing for military strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, to celebrating a two-week ceasefire, and then right back to worrying about whether the deal will hold. After one of the most dramatic weeks in energy market history, WTI crude is heading into the weekend near $98 per barrel.
Energy markets experienced another historic week as the war in Iran continued to escalate with no clear path toward resolution. Crude oil prices surged throughout the week, with WTI pushing well above $100/barrel and Brent trading above $140/barrel on the physical spot market by Thursday — even though paper Brent held around $110/barrel.
Crude oil markets ended the week in a position that may come as a surprise to those who have been watching the steady rally since the war began. Oil prices rose on Friday but are on track to end flat for the first time since the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran started. The reason came as President Trump extended his pause on strikes against Iran’s energy plants, giving markets a brief window of hope that a deal might take shape. Even so, crude prices remain well above normal levels.
