Oil is ending the week around $85 a barrel, up more than 20% from where it started Monday. This was one of the most alarming weeks of the entire Iran conflict. The brief peace deal that looked promising three weeks ago has completely unraveled.
This was a week that started with oil looking like it was finally settling down and ended with analysts questioning whether the Strait of Hormuz will ever be reliably open again. A lot happened this week!
WTI crude oil ended the week around $69 a barrel. The current price is below where prices were before the Iran war began. And this was the week the market made clear it believes the supply is actually coming back. From Monday’s peace talk optimism to Thursday’s record flows through the Strait, prices fell nearly $7 in five trading sessions. And yet, by Friday, a vessel attack near Oman, Iran turning back tankers it deemed unauthorized, a revealing of unreported damage to the U.S. naval base in Bahrain reminded everyone that $69 is a trading level, not necessarily a reality.
WTI crude fell to about $72 a barrel today — its lowest point since before the Iran war began — as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz kept building and Middle Eastern supply rushed back onto a global market that had been short of barrels for months. Here is what is driving the market today.
Oil is ending the week right around $77 a barrel. This was the week the world actually saw a peace deal get signed, watched the first supertankers move through the Strait of Hormuz in months, and celebrated gasoline dropping below $4 a gallon for the first time since March. And then Friday morning brought a fresh complication that reminded everyone how fragile this whole thing still is.
Oil ended the week at its lowest price in nearly two months, settling around $84/barrel, after Trump called off threatened new military strikes on Iran and a Western a ceasefire deal could be signed as soon as Sunday. That is the biggest piece of good news the oil market has seen since this war began. Here is what is driving the market.
Oil is ending the week right around $92 a barrel, roughly where it started. It was one of those weeks where everything went back and forth: good news, then bad news, then good news again. Every time it looked like a deal might be coming together, something happened to push it off.
This was one of the most volatile weeks of the entire three-month Hormuz crisis. WTI crude touched $100 a barrel early in the week, collapsed to $90 on deal optimism midweek, snapped back above $90 when airstrikes resumed, and is ending the week right back near $90 as a potential ceasefire extension waits for President Trump’s signature. Oil moved as much as six dollars in a single session on multiple days. The one certainty heading into the weekend is that nothing is solid until a deal is signed and the first tanker moves freely through the Strait.
This was a week that had everything: drone strikes, a near-restart of the war in Iran, a record SPR draw, cautiously optimistic peace signals, and a Chicago market that continued to swing in record numbers. WTI is looking to close below $100/barrel for a weekly loss.
This was another week where hope appeared on Monday, reality set back in by Friday. Oil is trading near $104 a barrel as I write this after Trump announced overnight that the United States doesn’t need the Strait of Hormuz open. The comment sent prices up more than 2% to start the day.
